Academy Award Predictions

updated: February 8, 2020

The results on this page reflect the output of MSM prediction formula v2.0. Unfortunately v1.0 did not properly predict the winners of the 86th and 88th Academy Awards, so I revamped it in October 2016. Sadly, version 2.0 has not fared much better.

Best Picture predictions: 9-3

Year	Event	Predicted	Actual
2020	92nd Academy Awards	Parasite	?	Details
2019	91st Academy Awards	The Favourite	Green Room	Details
2018	90th Academy Awards	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	The Shape of Water	Details
2017	89th Academy Awards	La La Land	Moonlight	Details
2016	88th Academy Awards	Spotlight	Spotlight	Details
2015	87th Academy Awards	Birdman	Birdman	Details
2014	86th Academy Awards	12 Years A Slave	12 Years A Slave	Details
2013	85th Academy Awards	Argo	Argo	Details
2012	84th Academy Awards	The Artist	The Artist	Details
2011	83rd Academy Awards	The King's Speech	The King's Speech	Details
2010	82nd Academy Awards	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker	Details
2009	81st Academy Awards	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Details
2008	80th Academy Awards	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	Details

Year	Predicted	Actual
2020	Parasite	?	Details
2019	The Favourite	Green Room	Details
2018	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	The Shape of Water	Details
2017	La La Land	Moonlight	Details
2016	Spotlight	Spotlight	Details
2015	Birdman	Birdman	Details
2014	12 Years A Slave	12 Years A Slave	Details
2013	Argo	Argo	Details
2012	The Artist	The Artist	Details
2011	The King's Speech	The King's Speech	Details
2010	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker	Details
2009	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Details
2008	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	Details

Year	Predicted
2020	Parasite	Details
2019	The Favourite	Details
2018	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Details
2017	La La Land	Details
2016	Spotlight	Details
2015	Birdman	Details
2014	12 Years A Slave	Details
2013	Argo	Details
2012	The Artist	Details
2011	The King's Speech	Details
2010	The Hurt Locker	Details
2009	Slumdog Millionaire	Details
2008	No Country For Old Men	Details

Some interesting tidbits emerge when listing all the nominees together. For example, the nominee that had the best chance to win, but didn't, was La La Land and the nominee with the worst chance to win was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

All Nominees: (click any heading to re-sort the table)

Film	Year	Score	CS	BOS	AS	PWin	Won
Parasite	2019	35.82	15.53	10.39	9.40	X
1917	2019	33.52	13.31	9.31	10.40
Little Women	2019	27.19	11.84	9.21	5.63
Joker	2019	26.57	10.49	7.72	7.86
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood	2019	25.78	7.85	9.09	8.84
The Irishman	2019	25.09	11.29	5.00	8.80
Jojo Rabbit	2019	24.36	7.81	10.48	5.56
Marriage Story	2019	23.79	11.96	5.00	6.83
Ford v Ferrari	2019	23.69	12.03	9.45	2.22
The Favourite	2018	30.53	9.72	10.39	9.92	X
Green Book	2018	28.41	11.25	9.68	6.98		X
Roma	2018	27.66	10.51	5.00	11.66
A Star is Born	2018	26.38	10.03	8.46	7.89
BlacKKKlansman	2018	26.30	7.96	10.08	7.76
Vice	2018	20.67	1.76	10.10	8.30
Bohemian Rhapsody	2018	19.69	6.68	8.44	4.07
Black Pather	2018	9.66	6.75	-1.07	3.49
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	2017	33.29	12.69	10.03	10.06	X
The Shape of Water	2017	32.23	8.45	9.93	13.34		X
Dunkirk	2017	26.44	10.81	8.29	6.83
Lady Bird	2017	26.44	8.87	10.09	7.48
Get Out	2017	24.40	9.53	8.47	6.40
Call Me By Your Name	2017	24.16	11.84	6.18	5.65
Phantom Thread	2017	21.74	9.60	6.44	5.20
Darkest Hour	2017	19.56	6.09	9.96	3.01
The Post	2017	18.29	5.79	9.49	2.52
La La Land	2016	38.80	14.27	9.19	14.84	X
Manchester by the Sea	2016	30.70	11.96	10.18	8.55
Moonlight	2016	27.77	10.63	6.45	10.19		X
Arrival	2016	27.39	11.24	9.23	6.42
Hacksaw Ridge	2016	26.78	12.33	9.82	4.63
Lion	2016	26.43	9.61	10.34	5.98
Hidden Figures	2016	22.74	10.27	9.06	2.91
Fences	2016	21.68	7.72	10.02	3.94
Hell or High Water	2016	20.76	9.17	6.84	4.75
The Big Short	2015	26.72	9.43	9.80	6.99
Bridge of Spies	2015	23.21	8.93	9.72	4.56
Brooklyn	2015	23.38	8.75	10.36	3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road	2015	29.79	12.63	9.33	7.33
The Martian	2015	25.30	11.36	8.45	5.49
The Revenant	2015	30.58	10.83	8.75	11.01
Room	2015	24.31	12.69	5.88	5.24
Spotlight	2015	32.05	12.51	10.32	8.72	X	X
Birdman	2014	32.77	11.48	10.29	10.50	X	X
Boyhood	2014	29.89	12.75	6.88	10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel	2014	30.28	10.88	9.86	9.54
The Imitation Game	2014	29.14	11.43	9.41	7.80
American Sniper	2014	17.30	5.56	6.64	4.60
Whiplash	2014	26.27	14.81	5.78	5.18
The Theory of Everything	2014	24.72	7.80	10.35	6.07
Selma	2014	22.72	9.41	10.05	2.75
Gravity	2013	31.78	12.75	7.99	11.04
12 Years a Slave	2013	35.66	13.84	10.10	11.23	X	X
American Hustle	2013	28.28	8.27	8.99	11.03
Captain Phillips	2013	25.57	10.45	9.03	5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street	2013	27.13	11.63	9.42	6.08
Her	2013	24.84	12.69	6.70	4.95
Dallas Buyers Club	2013	23.26	11.17	6.75	4.83
Nebraska	2013	22.52	10.15	6.17	5.70
Philomena	2013	24.63	9.48	10.39	4.75
Argo	2012	31.65	11.05	9.21	10.89	X	X
Lincoln	2012	27.42	9.24	8.51	9.66
Django Unchained	2012	27.21	13.25	8.79	5.17
Life of Pi	2012	28.76	11.43	9.35	7.48
Zero Dark Thirty	2012	24.69	7.91	9.36	7.42
Silver Linings Playbook	2012	28.22	10.45	9.15	8.12
Les Miserables	2012	21.97	6.55	8.95	6.48
Amour	2012	22.40	11.05	5.29	5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild	2012	15.74	5.37	5.88	4.48
The Artist	2011	38.14	14.08	10.42	13.64	X	X
Hugo	2011	29.64	11.24	9.91	8.00
The Descendants	2011	25.73	8.33	9.46	7.44
Midnight in Paris	2011	24.88	9.48	9.85	5.54
Moneyball	2011	24.67	9.05	9.47	5.65
The Help	2011	20.81	8.17	8.40	4.24
The Tree of Life	2011	14.01	3.85	6.04	4.13
War Horse	2011	15.72	3.80	9.40	2.52
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close	2011	9.39	-3.25	10.37	1.77
The King's Speech	2010	36.57	13.72	9.22	13.13	X	X
The Social Network	2010	33.43	11.96	9.16	11.80
Inception	2010	30.51	15.37	7.87	7.27
Toy Story 3	2010	23.50	16.20	3.45	3.85
True Grit	2010	26.90	11.60	8.58	6.22
Black Swan	2010	29.33	13.31	9.01	6.52
The Fighter	2010	28.18	10.64	9.25	7.79
127 Hours	2010	22.29	10.57	6.32	5.40
The Kids Are All Right	2010	18.12	6.15	6.52	4.95
Winter's Bone	2010	16.54	6.81	5.48	4.25
The Hurt Locker	2009	29.96	9.96	6.23	13.27	X	X
Up	2009	25.99	13.72	7.88	4.39
Avatar	2009	19.01	11.55	0.74	6.73
Inglourious Basterds	2009	28.52	11.08	9.28	8.16
Up in the Air	2009	27.51	9.00	9.43	8.58
District 9	2009	25.24	11.67	9.35	3.72
Precious	2009	24.76	7.24	10.11	6.91
The Blind Side	2009	15.71	5.09	8.15	1.97
An Education	2009	16.41	6.81	5.91	3.68
A Serious Man	2009	13.81	4.64	5.67	3.00
Slumdog Millionaire	2008	36.48	12.93	8.82	14.22	X	X
Curious Case of Benjamin Button	2008	27.58	8.41	9.04	10.13
Milk	2008	28.18	9.60	10.35	7.73
Frost/Nixon	2008	23.41	9.79	6.46	6.67
The Reader	2008	20.65	4.37	10.30	5.47
The Dark Knight *	2008	22.03	16.57	0.96	4.50
No Country For Old Men	2007	35.17	12.69	9.47	12.50	X	X
There Will Be Blood	2007	29.72	12.03	10.17	7.52
Michael Clayton	2007	25.76	7.36	9.99	7.91
Atonement	2007	25.61	8.52	9.95	6.63
Juno	2007	24.45	9.84	8.77	5.84

Film	Year	Score	CS	BOS	AS
Parasite	2019	35.82	15.53	10.39	9.40
1917	2019	33.52	13.31	9.31	10.40
Little Women	2019	27.19	11.84	9.21	5.63
Joker	2019	26.57	10.49	7.72	7.86
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood	2019	25.78	7.85	9.09	8.84
The Irishman	2019	25.09	11.29	5.00	8.80
Jojo Rabbit	2019	24.36	7.81	10.48	5.56
Marriage Story	2019	23.79	11.96	5.00	6.83
Ford v Ferrari	2019	23.69	12.03	9.45	2.22
The Favourite	2018	30.53	9.72	10.39	9.92
Green Book	2018	28.41	11.25	9.68	6.98
Roma	2018	27.66	10.51	5.00	11.66
A Star is Born	2018	26.38	10.03	8.46	7.89
BlacKKKlansman	2018	26.30	7.96	10.08	7.76
Vice	2018	20.67	1.76	10.10	8.30
Bohemian Rhapsody	2018	19.69	6.68	8.44	4.07
Black Pather	2018	9.66	6.75	-1.07	3.49
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	2017	33.29	12.69	10.03	10.06
The Shape of Water	2017	32.23	8.45	9.93	13.34
Dunkirk	2017	26.44	10.81	8.29	6.83
Lady Bird	2017	26.44	8.87	10.09	7.48
Get Out	2017	24.40	9.53	8.47	6.40
Call Me By Your Name	2017	24.16	11.84	6.18	5.65
Phantom Thread	2017	21.74	9.60	6.44	5.20
Darkest Hour	2017	19.56	6.09	9.96	3.01
The Post	2017	18.29	5.79	9.49	2.52
La La Land	2016	38.80	14.27	9.19	14.84
Manchester by the Sea	2016	30.70	11.96	10.18	8.55
Moonlight	2016	27.77	10.63	6.45	10.19
Arrival	2016	27.39	11.24	9.23	6.42
Hacksaw Ridge	2016	26.78	12.33	9.82	4.63
Lion	2016	26.43	9.61	10.34	5.98
Hidden Figures	2016	22.74	10.27	9.06	2.91
Fences	2016	21.68	7.72	10.02	3.94
Hell or High Water	2016	20.76	9.17	6.84	4.75
The Big Short	2015	26.72	9.43	9.80	6.99
Bridge of Spies	2015	23.21	8.93	9.72	4.56
Brooklyn	2015	23.38	8.75	10.36	3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road	2015	29.79	12.63	9.33	7.33
The Martian	2015	25.30	11.36	8.45	5.49
The Revenant	2015	30.58	10.83	8.75	11.01
Room	2015	24.31	12.69	5.88	5.24
Spotlight	2015	32.05	12.51	10.32	8.72
Birdman	2014	32.77	11.48	10.29	10.50
Boyhood	2014	29.89	12.75	6.88	10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel	2014	30.28	10.88	9.86	9.54
The Imitation Game	2014	29.14	11.43	9.41	7.80
American Sniper	2014	17.30	5.56	6.64	4.60
Whiplash	2014	26.27	14.81	5.78	5.18
The Theory of Everything	2014	24.72	7.80	10.35	6.07
Selma	2014	22.72	9.41	10.05	2.75
Gravity	2013	31.78	12.75	7.99	11.04
12 Years a Slave	2013	35.66	13.84	10.10	11.23
American Hustle	2013	28.28	8.27	8.99	11.03
Captain Phillips	2013	25.57	10.45	9.03	5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street	2013	27.13	11.63	9.42	6.08
Her	2013	24.84	12.69	6.70	4.95
Dallas Buyers Club	2013	23.26	11.17	6.75	4.83
Nebraska	2013	22.52	10.15	6.17	5.70
Philomena	2013	24.63	9.48	10.39	4.75
Argo	2012	31.65	11.05	9.21	10.89
Lincoln	2012	27.42	9.24	8.51	9.66
Django Unchained	2012	27.21	13.25	8.79	5.17
Life of Pi	2012	28.76	11.43	9.35	7.48
Zero Dark Thirty	2012	24.69	7.91	9.36	7.42
Silver Linings Playbook	2012	28.22	10.45	9.15	8.12
Les Miserables	2012	21.97	6.55	8.95	6.48
Amour	2012	22.40	11.05	5.29	5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild	2012	15.74	5.37	5.88	4.48
The Artist	2011	38.14	14.08	10.42	13.64
Hugo	2011	29.64	11.24	9.91	8.00
The Descendants	2011	25.73	8.33	9.46	7.44
Midnight in Paris	2011	24.88	9.48	9.85	5.54
Moneyball	2011	24.67	9.05	9.47	5.65
The Help	2011	20.81	8.17	8.40	4.24
The Tree of Life	2011	14.01	3.85	6.04	4.13
War Horse	2011	15.72	3.80	9.40	2.52
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close	2011	9.39	-3.25	10.37	1.77
The King's Speech	2010	36.57	13.72	9.22	13.13
The Social Network	2010	33.43	11.96	9.16	11.80
Inception	2010	30.51	15.37	7.87	7.27
Toy Story 3	2010	23.50	16.20	3.45	3.85
True Grit	2010	26.90	11.60	8.58	6.22
Black Swan	2010	29.33	13.31	9.01	6.52
The Fighter	2010	28.18	10.64	9.25	7.79
127 Hours	2010	22.29	10.57	6.32	5.40
The Kids Are All Right	2010	18.12	6.15	6.52	4.95
Winter's Bone	2010	16.54	6.81	5.48	4.25
The Hurt Locker	2009	29.96	9.96	6.23	13.27
Up	2009	25.99	13.72	7.88	4.39
Avatar	2009	19.01	11.55	0.74	6.73
Inglourious Basterds	2009	28.52	11.08	9.28	8.16
Up in the Air	2009	27.51	9.00	9.43	8.58
District 9	2009	25.24	11.67	9.35	3.72
Precious	2009	24.76	7.24	10.11	6.91
The Blind Side	2009	15.71	5.09	8.15	1.97
An Education	2009	16.41	6.81	5.91	3.68
A Serious Man	2009	13.81	4.64	5.67	3.00
Slumdog Millionaire	2008	36.48	12.93	8.82	14.22
Curious Case of Benjamin Button	2008	27.58	8.41	9.04	10.13
Milk	2008	28.18	9.60	10.35	7.73
Frost/Nixon	2008	23.41	9.79	6.46	6.67
The Reader	2008	20.65	4.37	10.30	5.47
The Dark Knight *	2008	22.03	16.57	0.96	4.50
No Country For Old Men	2007	35.17	12.69	9.47	12.50
There Will Be Blood	2007	29.72	12.03	10.17	7.52
Michael Clayton	2007	25.76	7.36	9.99	7.91
Atonement	2007	25.61	8.52	9.95	6.63
Juno	2007	24.45	9.84	8.77	5.84

Film	Year	Score
Parasite	2019	35.82
1917	2019	33.52
Little Women	2019	27.19
Joker	2019	26.57
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood	2019	25.78
The Irishman	2019	25.09
Jojo Rabbit	2019	24.36
Marriage Story	2019	23.79
Ford v Ferrari	2019	23.69
The Favourite	2018	30.53
Green Book	2018	28.41
Roma	2018	27.66
A Star is Born	2018	26.38
BlacKKKlansman	2018	26.30
Vice	2018	20.67
Bohemian Rhapsody	2018	19.69
Black Pather	2018	9.66
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	2017	33.29
The Shape of Water	2017	32.23
Dunkirk	2017	26.44
Lady Bird	2017	26.44
Get Out	2017	24.40
Call Me By Your Name	2017	24.16
Phantom Thread	2017	21.74
Darkest Hour	2017	19.56
The Post	2017	18.29
La La Land	2016	38.80
Manchester by the Sea	2016	30.70
Moonlight	2016	27.77
Arrival	2016	27.39
Hacksaw Ridge	2016	26.78
Lion	2016	26.43
Hidden Figures	2016	22.74
Fences	2016	21.68
Hell or High Water	2016	20.76
The Big Short	2015	26.72
Bridge of Spies	2015	23.21
Brooklyn	2015	23.38
Mad Max: Fury Road	2015	29.79
The Martian	2015	25.30
The Revenant	2015	30.58
Room	2015	24.31
Spotlight	2015	32.05
Birdman	2014	32.77
Boyhood	2014	29.89
The Grand Budapest Hotel	2014	30.28
The Imitation Game	2014	29.14
American Sniper	2014	17.30
Whiplash	2014	26.27
The Theory of Everything	2014	24.72
Selma	2014	22.72
Gravity	2013	31.78
12 Years a Slave	2013	35.66
American Hustle	2013	28.28
Captain Phillips	2013	25.57
The Wolf of Wall Street	2013	27.13
Her	2013	24.84
Dallas Buyers Club	2013	23.26
Nebraska	2013	22.52
Philomena	2013	24.63
Argo	2012	31.65
Lincoln	2012	27.42
Django Unchained	2012	27.21
Life of Pi	2012	28.76
Zero Dark Thirty	2012	24.69
Silver Linings Playbook	2012	28.22
Les Miserables	2012	21.97
Amour	2012	22.40
Beasts of the Southern Wild	2012	15.74
The Artist	2011	38.14
Hugo	2011	29.64
The Descendants	2011	25.73
Midnight in Paris	2011	24.88
Moneyball	2011	24.67
The Help	2011	20.81
The Tree of Life	2011	14.01
War Horse	2011	15.72
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close	2011	9.39
The King's Speech	2010	36.57
The Social Network	2010	33.43
Inception	2010	30.51
Toy Story 3	2010	23.50
True Grit	2010	26.90
Black Swan	2010	29.33
The Fighter	2010	28.18
127 Hours	2010	22.29
The Kids Are All Right	2010	18.12
Winter's Bone	2010	16.54
The Hurt Locker	2009	29.96
Up	2009	25.99
Avatar	2009	19.01
Inglourious Basterds	2009	28.52
Up in the Air	2009	27.51
District 9	2009	25.24
Precious	2009	24.76
The Blind Side	2009	15.71
An Education	2009	16.41
A Serious Man	2009	13.81
Slumdog Millionaire	2008	36.48
Curious Case of Benjamin Button	2008	27.58
Milk	2008	28.18
Frost/Nixon	2008	23.41
The Reader	2008	20.65
The Dark Knight *	2008	22.03
No Country For Old Men	2007	35.17
There Will Be Blood	2007	29.72
Michael Clayton	2007	25.76
Atonement	2007	25.61
Juno	2007	24.45