Introduction
This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner. Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other. After incorrect predictions in 2014 (Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future! Hopefully this will be the first in a long series of correct predictions in years to come using the new formula.Data
| Film | Prediction Score |
Critical Predictor | Commercial Predictor | Awards Predictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La La Land | 38.80 | 14.27 | 9.19 | 14.84 |
| Manchester by the Sea | 30.70 | 11.96 | 10.18 | 8.55 |
| Moonlight | 27.77 | 10.63 | 6.45 | 10.19 |
| Arrival | 27.39 | 11.24 | 9.23 | 6.42 |
| Hacksaw Ridge | 26.78 | 12.33 | 9.82 | 4.63 |
| Lion | 26.43 | 9.61 | 10.34 | 5.98 |
| Hidden Figures | 22.74 | 10.27 | 9.06 | 2.91 |
| Fences | 21.68 | 7.72 | 10.02 | 3.94 |
| Hell or High Water | 20.76 | 9.17 | 6.84 | 4.75 |
| Film | Score | Critics | Box Offfice | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La La Land | 38.80 | 14.27 | 9.19 | 14.84 |
| Manchester by the Sea | 30.70 | 11.96 | 10.18 | 8.55 |
| Moonlight | 27.77 | 10.63 | 6.45 | 10.19 |
| Arrival | 27.39 | 11.24 | 9.23 | 6.42 |
| Hacksaw Ridge | 26.78 | 12.33 | 9.82 | 4.63 |
| Lion | 26.43 | 9.61 | 10.34 | 5.98 |
| Hidden Figures | 22.74 | 10.27 | 9.06 | 2.91 |
| Fences | 21.68 | 7.72 | 10.02 | 3.94 |
| Hell or High Water | 20.76 | 9.17 | 6.84 | 4.75 |
| Film | Score |
|---|---|
| La La Land | 38.80 |
| Manchester by the Sea | 30.70 |
| Moonlight | 27.77 |
| Arrival | 27.39 |
| Hacksaw Ridge | 26.78 |
| Lion | 26.43 |
| Hidden Figures | 22.74 |
| Fences | 21.68 |
| Hell or High Water | 20.76 |
La La Land has collected awards and nominations this year at a higher rate than any film from any other years included in these annual predictions. The previous high was 14.22, set by Slumdog Millionaire. La La Land squeaks past it with 14.84.
La La Land has also set a new record for overall prediction score, with 38.80. The previous record holder was The Artist with 38.14.
