Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction

[Update - October 22, 2016]
My original formula predicted The Revenant as the Best Picture winner for this year. You can see that original prediction here. The below prediction was made later using a revised MSM formula that properly projects Spotlight as the winner.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Now, let's rebuild this streak!

Data

Prediction

Of the 8 nominees, The Revenant has had by far the best awards season, but that isn't enough to propel it to the top of the Oscar heap. Spotlight's solid showing in all three categories makes it this year's predicted Oscar winner. Meanwhile Mad Max wins the bronze medal.

Predicted Winner: Spotlight